The Ultimate Tuesday-Specific SPX 0DTE Put Credit Spread Strategy
Introduction
Timing is everything in trading. At Alpha Crunching, we use a blend of proprietary market data and historical price movements to analyze how market behavior shifts depending on the day of the week. Some strategies thrive on specific days, while others perform better at different times. Understanding these nuances gives traders an edge, helping them stay selective and avoid overexposure when trends change.
One of the most consistent and data-backed edges we’ve identified revolves around trading SPX 0DTE put credit spreads on Tuesdays. This strategy isn’t based on guesswork—it’s built on statistical analysis and tested market conditions that increase the probability of success.
By combining our proprietary POTR metric with a technical confirmation process, traders can filter for high-probability setups and execute smart, selective trades—rather than chasing opportunities blindly.
In this post, we’ll break down:
✅ The key metric that signals when to trade
✅ The technical filters that increase trade quality
✅ Backtested performance and annualized results
✅ How to position size correctly for steady long-term gains
Let’s dive in and uncover why Tuesdays offer an optimal window for this 0DTE put credit spread strategy!
Step 1: Checking the POTR for Tuesday
The Post Open Triumph Rate (POTR) is a key metric in determining whether this Tuesday SPX 0DTE put credit spread is worth considering. POTR measures the percentage of times SPX has closed higher than its 10:30 AM ET price, providing a statistical edge for intraday bullish setups.
Each weekend, Alpha Crunching updates the POTR for each day of the week, allowing traders to plan ahead. For this strategy to be valid, Tuesday’s POTR must be 50% or higher.
For example, if Tuesday’s POTR is 78%, this means that SPX has closed higher than its 10:30 AM price 78% of the time the past two months. Since it meets our 50%+ threshold, the trade setup is valid for the upcoming week—but we still need additional confirmations before executing.
With the POTR confirmed, let’s move on to the next step: technical confirmation on Tuesday morning. 🚀
Step 2: Real-Time Confirmation Before Execution
Even with a strong POTR, we don’t take the trade blindly. To further stack the odds in our favor, we require two key technical confirmations before executing the Tuesday SPX 0DTE put credit spread. These criteria help ensure that bullish conditions are still present in real time, reducing exposure to unexpected market reversals.
✅ Confirmation #1: SPX Above Its 20-SMA (Medium-Term Trend Check)
- The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) acts as a trend filter—if SPX is trading above it, the market is in a medium-term uptrend.
- A price above the 20-SMA indicates a bullish bias, making it a favorable environment for a put credit spread.
- If SPX is below the 20-SMA, we skip the trade to avoid betting against the broader trend.
✅ Confirmation #2: 5-EMA Above 40-EMA on the 1-Minute Chart (Short-Term Momentum Check)
- The 5-exponential moving average (EMA) vs. 40-EMA on the 1-minute chart provides a real-time momentum signal.
- When the 5-EMA is above the 40-EMA between 10:30 AM - 11:00 AM ET, it confirms that bullish momentum is intact.
- If this condition is not met, it signals a potential shift in intraday sentiment, and we skip the trade.
By waiting for these confirmations, we systematically filter out weak or uncertain setups, avoiding trades on days when unexpected bearish catalysts could derail the strategy. If both conditions are met, the trade is good to go—if not, we move on to the next opportunity.
Now, let’s look at how this strategy performs over time with real trade results. 🚀
Step 3: Backtest Performance & Annual Metrics (2022-2025)
Now that we’ve established the criteria for execution, let’s review how this strategy has performed over the past few years. The backtest covers 2022-2024 and includes early 2025 results, highlighting both win rate and profitability when following this systematic approach.
Backtest Overview & Key Stats
Unlike many out-of-the-money (OTM) credit spread strategies, this backtest sells at-the-money (ATM) SPX put credit spreads with a 5-point width while maintaining a better than 3:2 risk-reward ratio. These spreads were held to expiration and in most cases achieved the max or max loss at expiration. Note: Tuesday expirations were not available until mid-2022 which is partly why there was a reduced umber of trades during that period.
- Win Rate: 77%
- Average Win Per Contract: $195
- Average Loss Per Contract: $271
One of the standout aspects of this strategy is how it naturally adapts to market conditions. In 2022, when the market was in a bearish downtrend, the system took very few trades, helping to avoid unnecessary risk. This highlights the importance of waiting for favorable conditions, rather than forcing trades in unfavorable markets.
Annual Performance Using 1% Allocation Per Trade
To keep risk manageable, this backtest assumes a conservative 1% allocation per trade within a $100K account:
- 2022: Break-even (few trades due to bear market conditions)
- 2023: +3.7% return
- 2024: +6.14% return
- 2025 (YTD): +2.7% in the first few months
Even with just 1% risk per trade, this strategy steadily boosted overall account returns while maintaining defined risk. The ability to generate meaningful returns with small, calculated risks demonstrates the power of leverage in SPX credit spreads and how capital-efficient ATM credit spreads can be when used strategically.
By filtering trades systematically and staying selective, we ensure that this high-probability strategy remains robust across different market environments.
Let’s wrap up with some final thoughts.🚀
Conclusion: Trade Smarter with Data-Driven Strategies
This Tuesday-specific SPX 0DTE put credit spread strategy is a perfect example of how timing, data, and selectivity can work together to improve trading performance. By following a systematic approach—using POTR as a filter, real-time technical confirmations, and disciplined risk management—traders can avoid low-probability setups and focus only on trades with an edge.
📊 Why This Strategy Works:
✅ Avoids bearish conditions by skipping trades when the odds aren’t favorable
✅ Uses real-time confirmation to ensure bullish momentum is intact
✅ Leverages capital efficiently with defined-risk ATM credit spreads
✅ Consistently delivers returns while managing downside risk
If you found this strategy valuable, there’s more where that came from! Check out our blog for other high-probability setups based on historical market behavior and proprietary Alpha Crunching data.
Want to get the POTR and other exclusive trading insights before the market opens? Sign up for Alpha Crunching today and start making more informed, data-driven trades.
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